Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$15,172 Объем
$15,172 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$15,172 Объем
$15,172 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Объем
$15,172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$15,172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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