US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack current plans or a fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, citing high operational risks and a preference for coercive measures short of conflict. This view aligns with recent cross-strait developments, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated established positions without escalation, alongside Taiwan's legislative approval of additional defense funding for missile systems and artillery. People's Liberation Army air defense identification zone incursions have declined from prior peaks, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic channels with Taiwan's opposition parties and maintained routine gray-zone activities rather than large-scale exercises. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 83 percent implied probability for no invasion by the end of 2027, though shifts could follow abrupt changes in military posture or regional incidents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$592,788 Объем
$592,788 Объем
Да
$592,788 Объем
$592,788 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack current plans or a fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, citing high operational risks and a preference for coercive measures short of conflict. This view aligns with recent cross-strait developments, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated established positions without escalation, alongside Taiwan's legislative approval of additional defense funding for missile systems and artillery. People's Liberation Army air defense identification zone incursions have declined from prior peaks, while Beijing has pursued diplomatic channels with Taiwan's opposition parties and maintained routine gray-zone activities rather than large-scale exercises. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 83 percent implied probability for no invasion by the end of 2027, though shifts could follow abrupt changes in military posture or regional incidents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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