The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, with closing arguments now complete and jury deliberations set to begin shortly, stands as the main driver behind the 77.5% implied probability that Elon Musk and Sam Altman will not settle. Musk’s pre-trial outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a resolution was rebuffed, leading to sharp exchanges that hardened positions rather than opening doors. The core dispute over OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit to for-profit status, Musk’s $150 billion damages claim, and demands to unwind commercial structures remain unresolved after weeks of testimony, including Altman’s cross-examination. With the jury poised to decide breach-of-trust and unjust-enrichment claims in the coming days, traders see little incentive for last-minute compromise absent a verdict that forces new talks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
$10,541 Объем
$10,541 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$10,541 Объем
$10,541 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, with closing arguments now complete and jury deliberations set to begin shortly, stands as the main driver behind the 77.5% implied probability that Elon Musk and Sam Altman will not settle. Musk’s pre-trial outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a resolution was rebuffed, leading to sharp exchanges that hardened positions rather than opening doors. The core dispute over OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit to for-profit status, Musk’s $150 billion damages claim, and demands to unwind commercial structures remain unresolved after weeks of testimony, including Altman’s cross-examination. With the jury poised to decide breach-of-trust and unjust-enrichment claims in the coming days, traders see little incentive for last-minute compromise absent a verdict that forces new talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Объем
$10,541Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, with closing arguments now complete and jury deliberations set to begin shortly, stands as the main driver behind the 77.5% implied probability that Elon Musk and Sam Altman will not settle. Musk’s pre-trial outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a resolution was rebuffed, leading to sharp exchanges that hardened positions rather than opening doors. The core dispute over OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit to for-profit status, Musk’s $150 billion damages claim, and demands to unwind commercial structures remain unresolved after weeks of testimony, including Altman’s cross-examination. With the jury poised to decide breach-of-trust and unjust-enrichment claims in the coming days, traders see little incentive for last-minute compromise absent a verdict that forces new talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$10,542Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, with closing arguments now complete and jury deliberations set to begin shortly, stands as the main driver behind the 77.5% implied probability that Elon Musk and Sam Altman will not settle. Musk’s pre-trial outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a resolution was rebuffed, leading to sharp exchanges that hardened positions rather than opening doors. The core dispute over OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit to for-profit status, Musk’s $150 billion damages claim, and demands to unwind commercial structures remain unresolved after weeks of testimony, including Altman’s cross-examination. With the jury poised to decide breach-of-trust and unjust-enrichment claims in the coming days, traders see little incentive for last-minute compromise absent a verdict that forces new talks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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