The Iranian regime's survival through the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sustained US and Israeli military pressure since February 2026, and subsequent waves of domestic protests has reinforced trader expectations that no collapse will occur by September 30. Security institutions adapted quickly, installing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor and maintaining control despite economic strain and leadership losses. With resolution just one day away, the near-certain consensus on "No" reflects the absence of any immediate catalyst such as coordinated mass unrest or decisive internal fracture. Only an unforeseen shock—such as rapid elite defections or a sudden external escalation—could realistically shift the outcome before the deadline.