The limited scope of U.S. military actions in Latin America so far in 2026 has anchored trader expectations that no full invasion will occur by year-end. A January special operation captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and extraction without establishing territorial control or prolonged ground presence, consistent with administration emphasis on law-enforcement objectives rather than occupation. Subsequent efforts have centered on maritime interdictions, joint counter-cartel operations in Ecuador and Colombia, and sanctions pressure on Cuba, framed around border security, drug trafficking, and countering external influence. With half the year elapsed and no announced deployments or legislative moves signaling sustained combat operations, the 77 percent probability on “No” reflects the narrow operational pattern and lack of conditions that historically precede territorial incursions.