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Политика·Трамп

Сократит ли Трамп долгосрочный налог на прирост капитала до 2027 года?

icon for Сократит ли Трамп долгосрочный налог на прирост капитала до 2027 года?
Политика·Трамп

Сократит ли Трамп долгосрочный налог на прирост капитала до 2027 года?

дек. 31

дек. 31

Да

0% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

0% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 62.5 percent probability that long-term capital gains taxes will not be reduced before 2027, reflecting the administration’s focus on extending expiring individual income tax provisions rather than advancing targeted cuts for investment income. Congressional budget negotiations have centered on revenue-neutral extensions of the 2017 tax law framework, with limited floor time allocated for capital gains adjustments amid competing spending priorities. Recent Treasury guidance has emphasized deficit reduction targets without proposing specific rate changes for asset sales, while mid-term election pressures in 2026 encourage caution on measures that could alter projected federal receipts. These legislative and fiscal dynamics have shaped the current market consensus around delayed or narrower action on capital gains policy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,576
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 62.5 percent probability that long-term capital gains taxes will not be reduced before 2027, reflecting the administration’s focus on extending expiring individual income tax provisions rather than advancing targeted cuts for investment income. Congressional budget negotiations have centered on revenue-neutral extensions of the 2017 tax law framework, with limited floor time allocated for capital gains adjustments amid competing spending priorities. Recent Treasury guidance has emphasized deficit reduction targets without proposing specific rate changes for asset sales, while mid-term election pressures in 2026 encourage caution on measures that could alter projected federal receipts. These legislative and fiscal dynamics have shaped the current market consensus around delayed or narrower action on capital gains policy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,576
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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