The comprehensive tax legislation signed in July 2025, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, permanently extended most Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual provisions and introduced targeted relief such as deductions for tips and overtime, but left the top long-term capital gains rate unchanged at 20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax. Subsequent administration discussions have centered on inflation indexing for gains or expanding the primary residence exclusion rather than a broad rate reduction. With midterm elections approaching and reconciliation already used for the prior package, congressional calendars show limited opportunity for another major tax bill targeting capital gains before 2027. These factors underpin the 86 percent trader consensus against a cut occurring in the remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The comprehensive tax legislation signed in July 2025, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, permanently extended most Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual provisions and introduced targeted relief such as deductions for tips and overtime, but left the top long-term capital gains rate unchanged at 20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax. Subsequent administration discussions have centered on inflation indexing for gains or expanding the primary residence exclusion rather than a broad rate reduction. With midterm elections approaching and reconciliation already used for the prior package, congressional calendars show limited opportunity for another major tax bill targeting capital gains before 2027. These factors underpin the 86 percent trader consensus against a cut occurring in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$2,245Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The comprehensive tax legislation signed in July 2025, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, permanently extended most Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual provisions and introduced targeted relief such as deductions for tips and overtime, but left the top long-term capital gains rate unchanged at 20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax. Subsequent administration discussions have centered on inflation indexing for gains or expanding the primary residence exclusion rather than a broad rate reduction. With midterm elections approaching and reconciliation already used for the prior package, congressional calendars show limited opportunity for another major tax bill targeting capital gains before 2027. These factors underpin the 86 percent trader consensus against a cut occurring in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,245Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The comprehensive tax legislation signed in July 2025, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, permanently extended most Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual provisions and introduced targeted relief such as deductions for tips and overtime, but left the top long-term capital gains rate unchanged at 20 percent plus the 3.8 percent net investment income tax. Subsequent administration discussions have centered on inflation indexing for gains or expanding the primary residence exclusion rather than a broad rate reduction. With midterm elections approaching and reconciliation already used for the prior package, congressional calendars show limited opportunity for another major tax bill targeting capital gains before 2027. These factors underpin the 86 percent trader consensus against a cut occurring in the remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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