High barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 95.9% trader consensus against presidential term limits being repealed in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-quarters of states, a process with no precedent for swift action during a midterm year. Proposed resolutions such as H.J.Res.29 advanced no further than committee referral in early 2025, and recent public statements from the president have acknowledged the constitutional restriction without pursuing amendment efforts. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for legislative momentum. The only realistic paths that could still shift odds involve post-election changes in congressional composition combined with coordinated state-level action, though both remain remote given historical amendment success rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$12,999 Объем
$12,999 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$12,999 Объем
$12,999 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.High barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 95.9% trader consensus against presidential term limits being repealed in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-quarters of states, a process with no precedent for swift action during a midterm year. Proposed resolutions such as H.J.Res.29 advanced no further than committee referral in early 2025, and recent public statements from the president have acknowledged the constitutional restriction without pursuing amendment efforts. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for legislative momentum. The only realistic paths that could still shift odds involve post-election changes in congressional composition combined with coordinated state-level action, though both remain remote given historical amendment success rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Открытие рынка: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$12,999Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.High barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 95.9% trader consensus against presidential term limits being repealed in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-quarters of states, a process with no precedent for swift action during a midterm year. Proposed resolutions such as H.J.Res.29 advanced no further than committee referral in early 2025, and recent public statements from the president have acknowledged the constitutional restriction without pursuing amendment efforts. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for legislative momentum. The only realistic paths that could still shift odds involve post-election changes in congressional composition combined with coordinated state-level action, though both remain remote given historical amendment success rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Объем
$12,999Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...High barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 95.9% trader consensus against presidential term limits being repealed in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-quarters of states, a process with no precedent for swift action during a midterm year. Proposed resolutions such as H.J.Res.29 advanced no further than committee referral in early 2025, and recent public statements from the president have acknowledged the constitutional restriction without pursuing amendment efforts. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for legislative momentum. The only realistic paths that could still shift odds involve post-election changes in congressional composition combined with coordinated state-level action, though both remain remote given historical amendment success rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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