U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling dominance—40% in the latest Marquette Law School survey from March, far ahead of Andy Manske at 6%—bolstered by high-profile endorsements including former President Trump's in late January, Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin in February, and most recently, former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson about one week ago, which ended speculation of Thompson's own candidacy and prompted further field consolidation. With the August 11 primary approaching, Tiffany's incumbency advantage in the 7th Congressional District, strong rural support, and early ad launches have solidified his frontrunner status amid a fragmented field. Late-breaking scandals, a high-profile defection, or a surge by Manske could challenge this, though structural barriers favor Tiffany barring major disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТом Тиффани 91%
Томми Томпсон 3.8%
Энди Мэнске 3.7%
Джош Шоэман 2.3%
$82,422 Объем
$82,422 Объем
Том Тиффани
91%
Томми Томпсон
4%
Энди Мэнске
4%
Джош Шоэман
2%
Ребекка Клифиш
1%
Тим Майклс
1%
Эрик Ховде
<1%
Шон Даффи
<1%
Том Тиффани 91%
Томми Томпсон 3.8%
Энди Мэнске 3.7%
Джош Шоэман 2.3%
$82,422 Объем
$82,422 Объем
Том Тиффани
91%
Томми Томпсон
4%
Энди Мэнске
4%
Джош Шоэман
2%
Ребекка Клифиш
1%
Тим Майклс
1%
Эрик Ховде
<1%
Шон Даффи
<1%
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary reflects trader consensus on his sustained polling dominance—40% in the latest Marquette Law School survey from March, far ahead of Andy Manske at 6%—bolstered by high-profile endorsements including former President Trump's in late January, Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin in February, and most recently, former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson about one week ago, which ended speculation of Thompson's own candidacy and prompted further field consolidation. With the August 11 primary approaching, Tiffany's incumbency advantage in the 7th Congressional District, strong rural support, and early ad launches have solidified his frontrunner status amid a fragmented field. Late-breaking scandals, a high-profile defection, or a surge by Manske could challenge this, though structural barriers favor Tiffany barring major disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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