Meta's leading 71% implied probability reflects its recent open-source model releases and ecosystem momentum, which have accelerated developer adoption and benchmark gains relative to closed labs. Traders appear to weigh Meta's consistent scaling of Llama-series large language models, API accessibility, and integration across platforms as decisive edges heading into late September. Google trails at 15% amid steady but less disruptive updates, while Anthropic and OpenAI sit at single-digit odds following earlier capability leads that have not produced fresh announcements in the past month. The market's tight clustering around 50% for several other labs underscores uncertainty over smaller players' ability to deliver competitive releases before month-end, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable model benchmarks or official capability demonstrations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMeta 71%
Google 15%
Anthropic 6.5%
OpenAI 6%
$80,202 ปริมาณ
$80,202 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
71%
15%
Anthropic
7%
OpenAI
6%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 71%
Google 15%
Anthropic 6.5%
OpenAI 6%
$80,202 ปริมาณ
$80,202 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$25,054 ปริมาณ
71%
$10,930 ปริมาณ
15%
Anthropic
$4,203 ปริมาณ
7%
OpenAI
$15,942 ปริมาณ
6%
Moonshot
$2,097 ปริมาณ
2%
Z.ai
$1,620 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$1,312 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,593 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$1,111 ปริมาณ
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,450 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$5,031 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$1,361 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$1,573 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$1,232 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$645 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$460 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$820 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$665 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$733 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$831 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's leading 71% implied probability reflects its recent open-source model releases and ecosystem momentum, which have accelerated developer adoption and benchmark gains relative to closed labs. Traders appear to weigh Meta's consistent scaling of Llama-series large language models, API accessibility, and integration across platforms as decisive edges heading into late September. Google trails at 15% amid steady but less disruptive updates, while Anthropic and OpenAI sit at single-digit odds following earlier capability leads that have not produced fresh announcements in the past month. The market's tight clustering around 50% for several other labs underscores uncertainty over smaller players' ability to deliver competitive releases before month-end, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable model benchmarks or official capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$80,202วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's leading 71% implied probability reflects its recent open-source model releases and ecosystem momentum, which have accelerated developer adoption and benchmark gains relative to closed labs. Traders appear to weigh Meta's consistent scaling of Llama-series large language models, API accessibility, and integration across platforms as decisive edges heading into late September. Google trails at 15% amid steady but less disruptive updates, while Anthropic and OpenAI sit at single-digit odds following earlier capability leads that have not produced fresh announcements in the past month. The market's tight clustering around 50% for several other labs underscores uncertainty over smaller players' ability to deliver competitive releases before month-end, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable model benchmarks or official capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$80,202วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Meta's leading 71% implied probability reflects its recent open-source model releases and ecosystem momentum, which have accelerated developer adoption and benchmark gains relative to closed labs. Traders appear to weigh Meta's consistent scaling of Llama-series large language models, API accessibility, and integration across platforms as decisive edges heading into late September. Google trails at 15% amid steady but less disruptive updates, while Anthropic and OpenAI sit at single-digit odds following earlier capability leads that have not produced fresh announcements in the past month. The market's tight clustering around 50% for several other labs underscores uncertainty over smaller players' ability to deliver competitive releases before month-end, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable model benchmarks or official capability demonstrations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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