Amish Shah holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 1st District open-seat race, driven by consistent polling leads and recent forecaster shifts. Multiple October surveys, including Keating Research (Shah 49%–Feely 45%) and RedBox Research (Shah 49%–Feely 43%), show the Democrat ahead among independents and moderates in the R+1 PVI district. Ratings moved from toss-up to Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic at Cook, Inside Elections, and others after Shah’s July primary win and sustained fundraising. Jay Feely, the Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker, trails despite heavy outside spending exceeding $18 million on both sides. Election-day resolution on November 3 hinges on turnout in this competitive Maricopa County seat previously held narrowly by Republicans.