Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBerlin State Election: 4th Place
Berlin State Election: 4th Place
Grüne 50%
AfD 19%
Linke 16%
SPD 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
50%
AfD
19%
Linke
16%
SPD
16%
BSW
14%
FDP
11%
CDU
13%
FW
2%
Grüne 50%
AfD 19%
Linke 16%
SPD 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$1,357 ปริมาณ
50%
AfD
$20 ปริมาณ
19%
Linke
$20 ปริมาณ
16%
SPD
$20 ปริมาณ
16%
BSW
$20 ปริมาณ
14%
FDP
$61 ปริมาณ
11%
CDU
$20 ปริมาณ
13%
FW
$68 ปริมาณ
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,586วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,586วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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