Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$25,113 ปริมาณ
$25,113 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
14%
$25,113 ปริมาณ
$25,113 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,178 ปริมาณ
86%
Republican Party
$11,935 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,113วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,113วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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