Recent independent polling averages show incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz holding a narrow lead over Republican Scott Singer in Florida’s newly redrawn 25th district, with margins ranging from one to six points in surveys conducted in the final two weeks. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the seat from toss-up to lean Democratic following these results and sustained Democratic fundraising advantages. Moskowitz has raised over $5.7 million compared with Singer’s $3.3 million, while heavy pro-Israel PAC support has bolstered the incumbent’s position in the Jewish-heavy coastal district. Late Republican outside spending from a Trump-aligned super PAC and internal GOP surveys showing Singer ahead have kept the race competitive ahead of the November 3 election, though trader consensus reflects the polling edge and incumbency as primary drivers of current implied probabilities.