Recent September Core PCE data at 3.1% year-over-year, up from a revised 3.0% in August and in line with consensus, has positioned 3.2% as the modal outcome for October amid persistent monthly core gains of 0.3%. Firm Q3 GDP expansion of 3.4% annualized and energy price pressures have reinforced expectations of limited near-term cooling, keeping the distribution centered between 3.1% and 3.3%. Traders view these levels as consistent with the Fed’s September median 3.4% projection for full-year 2026 core inflation, while acknowledging that softer October CPI prints or labor market softening could shift probabilities lower ahead of the November 25 release. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on the inflation trajectory.