Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, continues under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to address threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than occupation or transfer of sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 remain below 5 percent, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could influence assessments of escalation risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$198,173 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$198,173 ปริมาณ
September 30
$20,903 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, continues under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to address threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than occupation or transfer of sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 remain below 5 percent, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could influence assessments of escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$198,173วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, continues under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to address threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than occupation or transfer of sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 remain below 5 percent, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could influence assessments of escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$198,173วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, continues under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to address threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than occupation or transfer of sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention of Gulf territories despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 remain below 5 percent, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could influence assessments of escalation risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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