Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July and attacks on nearby Larak Island launchers in August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining oversight of key shipping routes near Hengam, Qeshm, and Hormuz. A September 13 attack on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam that killed one crew member and wounded three others reflects heightened maritime tensions but has not produced any verified shift in sovereignty. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any near-term loss of primary Iranian control, as temporary strikes or disruptions do not meet resolution criteria and no occupying force has established authority. Diplomatic efforts involving Gulf states continue amid the broader conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,473 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,473 ปริมาณ
September 30
$2,633 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July and attacks on nearby Larak Island launchers in August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining oversight of key shipping routes near Hengam, Qeshm, and Hormuz. A September 13 attack on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam that killed one crew member and wounded three others reflects heightened maritime tensions but has not produced any verified shift in sovereignty. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any near-term loss of primary Iranian control, as temporary strikes or disruptions do not meet resolution criteria and no occupying force has established authority. Diplomatic efforts involving Gulf states continue amid the broader conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$208,473วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July and attacks on nearby Larak Island launchers in August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining oversight of key shipping routes near Hengam, Qeshm, and Hormuz. A September 13 attack on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam that killed one crew member and wounded three others reflects heightened maritime tensions but has not produced any verified shift in sovereignty. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any near-term loss of primary Iranian control, as temporary strikes or disruptions do not meet resolution criteria and no occupying force has established authority. Diplomatic efforts involving Gulf states continue amid the broader conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$208,473วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July and attacks on nearby Larak Island launchers in August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining oversight of key shipping routes near Hengam, Qeshm, and Hormuz. A September 13 attack on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam that killed one crew member and wounded three others reflects heightened maritime tensions but has not produced any verified shift in sovereignty. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any near-term loss of primary Iranian control, as temporary strikes or disruptions do not meet resolution criteria and no occupying force has established authority. Diplomatic efforts involving Gulf states continue amid the broader conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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