**Persistent southwest monsoon flows and elevated thunderstorm activity are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus near 32–33°C for Manila’s September 16 peak temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate daytime highs of 30–31°C under mostly cloudy skies, with 60–80% rain chances concentrated in the afternoon and evening. These convective showers limit solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing stronger surface heating. Subtle differences in storm timing, cloud thickness, and boundary-layer moisture explain the tight spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes: slightly earlier or weaker convection could allow brief clearing and a 1–2°C spike, while sustained overcast conditions would cap readings nearer 30–31°C. Historical September climatology (typical maxima near 31°C) and current model consensus support the market’s narrow distribution, with resolution hinging on the exact evolution of localized thunderstorms over the next 48 hours.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
33°C 33%
32°C 32%
31°C 20%
34°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
6%
30°C
10%
31°C
15%
32°C
32%
33°C
33%
34°C
10%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
33°C 33%
32°C 32%
31°C 20%
34°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
31°C
$627 ปริมาณ
15%
32°C
$52 ปริมาณ
32%
33°C
$1,424 ปริมาณ
33%
34°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
35°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
36°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon flows and elevated thunderstorm activity are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus near 32–33°C for Manila’s September 16 peak temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate daytime highs of 30–31°C under mostly cloudy skies, with 60–80% rain chances concentrated in the afternoon and evening. These convective showers limit solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing stronger surface heating. Subtle differences in storm timing, cloud thickness, and boundary-layer moisture explain the tight spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes: slightly earlier or weaker convection could allow brief clearing and a 1–2°C spike, while sustained overcast conditions would cap readings nearer 30–31°C. Historical September climatology (typical maxima near 31°C) and current model consensus support the market’s narrow distribution, with resolution hinging on the exact evolution of localized thunderstorms over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,103วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon flows and elevated thunderstorm activity are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus near 32–33°C for Manila’s September 16 peak temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate daytime highs of 30–31°C under mostly cloudy skies, with 60–80% rain chances concentrated in the afternoon and evening. These convective showers limit solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing stronger surface heating. Subtle differences in storm timing, cloud thickness, and boundary-layer moisture explain the tight spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes: slightly earlier or weaker convection could allow brief clearing and a 1–2°C spike, while sustained overcast conditions would cap readings nearer 30–31°C. Historical September climatology (typical maxima near 31°C) and current model consensus support the market’s narrow distribution, with resolution hinging on the exact evolution of localized thunderstorms over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,103วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon flows and elevated thunderstorm activity are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus near 32–33°C for Manila’s September 16 peak temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate daytime highs of 30–31°C under mostly cloudy skies, with 60–80% rain chances concentrated in the afternoon and evening. These convective showers limit solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing stronger surface heating. Subtle differences in storm timing, cloud thickness, and boundary-layer moisture explain the tight spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes: slightly earlier or weaker convection could allow brief clearing and a 1–2°C spike, while sustained overcast conditions would cap readings nearer 30–31°C. Historical September climatology (typical maxima near 31°C) and current model consensus support the market’s narrow distribution, with resolution hinging on the exact evolution of localized thunderstorms over the next 48 hours.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย