Current forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international guidance, including ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's leading 16°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability, followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%, reflecting ensemble consensus around the seasonal spring average of roughly 13–15°C while accounting for modest warming from clear conditions and northerly flow. Recent model updates show low uncertainty in the 14–17°C range, with 17°C at just 11%, as high pressure dominates and limits stronger advection or cloud cover that could shift readings. Traders appear to weigh official observational baselines and short-range forecast stability heavily ahead of the day's resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
16°C 52%
15°C 36%
17°C 11%
14°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
5%
15°C
36%
16°C
52%
17°C
11%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 52%
15°C 36%
17°C 11%
14°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
$573 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$573 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$79 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$64 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$382 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$836 ปริมาณ
5%
15°C
$1,538 ปริมาณ
36%
16°C
$3,335 ปริมาณ
52%
17°C
$1,507 ปริมาณ
11%
18°C
$663 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C or higher
$206 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international guidance, including ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's leading 16°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability, followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%, reflecting ensemble consensus around the seasonal spring average of roughly 13–15°C while accounting for modest warming from clear conditions and northerly flow. Recent model updates show low uncertainty in the 14–17°C range, with 17°C at just 11%, as high pressure dominates and limits stronger advection or cloud cover that could shift readings. Traders appear to weigh official observational baselines and short-range forecast stability heavily ahead of the day's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,755วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international guidance, including ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's leading 16°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability, followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%, reflecting ensemble consensus around the seasonal spring average of roughly 13–15°C while accounting for modest warming from clear conditions and northerly flow. Recent model updates show low uncertainty in the 14–17°C range, with 17°C at just 11%, as high pressure dominates and limits stronger advection or cloud cover that could shift readings. Traders appear to weigh official observational baselines and short-range forecast stability heavily ahead of the day's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,755วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international guidance, including ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's leading 16°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability, followed closely by 15°C at 35.5%, reflecting ensemble consensus around the seasonal spring average of roughly 13–15°C while accounting for modest warming from clear conditions and northerly flow. Recent model updates show low uncertainty in the 14–17°C range, with 17°C at just 11%, as high pressure dominates and limits stronger advection or cloud cover that could shift readings. Traders appear to weigh official observational baselines and short-range forecast stability heavily ahead of the day's resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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