Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?
34°C 36%
33°C 28%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
ใหม่
$10,299 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,299 ปริมาณ
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
13%
33°C
28%
34°C
36%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 36%
33°C 28%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
ใหม่
$10,299 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,299 ปริมาณ
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
$1,527 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$434 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$2,882 ปริมาณ
1%
31°C
$212 ปริมาณ
3%
32°C
$441 ปริมาณ
13%
33°C
$342 ปริมาณ
28%
34°C
$319 ปริมาณ
36%
35°C
$991 ปริมาณ
14%
36°C
$1,100 ปริมาณ
4%
37°C
$1,443 ปริมาณ
1%
38°C or higher
$608 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,299วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,299วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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