Recent announcements from veteran Democratic House members, including Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and several others over age 70 opting for retirement or higher office, have driven trader sentiment toward the 32–35 range as the most probable total. These decisions reflect broader patterns of incumbents passing the torch ahead of the 2026 midterms, with additional factors such as redistricting pressures and opportunities in Senate or gubernatorial races accelerating exits. The current distribution across bins underscores uncertainty over how many more announcements may occur before filing deadlines, as historical midterm cycles show fluctuating retirement rates influenced by party control and individual circumstances. Traders weigh these developments against the possibility of fewer departures if competitive dynamics stabilize.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 ปริมาณ
$31,654 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40+
16%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 ปริมาณ
$31,654 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 ปริมาณ
3%
20–23
$5,250 ปริมาณ
13%
24–27
$4,156 ปริมาณ
19%
28–31
$1,174 ปริมาณ
20%
32–35
$3,574 ปริมาณ
32%
36–39
$508 ปริมาณ
3%
40+
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from veteran Democratic House members, including Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and several others over age 70 opting for retirement or higher office, have driven trader sentiment toward the 32–35 range as the most probable total. These decisions reflect broader patterns of incumbents passing the torch ahead of the 2026 midterms, with additional factors such as redistricting pressures and opportunities in Senate or gubernatorial races accelerating exits. The current distribution across bins underscores uncertainty over how many more announcements may occur before filing deadlines, as historical midterm cycles show fluctuating retirement rates influenced by party control and individual circumstances. Traders weigh these developments against the possibility of fewer departures if competitive dynamics stabilize.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,654วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from veteran Democratic House members, including Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and several others over age 70 opting for retirement or higher office, have driven trader sentiment toward the 32–35 range as the most probable total. These decisions reflect broader patterns of incumbents passing the torch ahead of the 2026 midterms, with additional factors such as redistricting pressures and opportunities in Senate or gubernatorial races accelerating exits. The current distribution across bins underscores uncertainty over how many more announcements may occur before filing deadlines, as historical midterm cycles show fluctuating retirement rates influenced by party control and individual circumstances. Traders weigh these developments against the possibility of fewer departures if competitive dynamics stabilize.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,654วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements from veteran Democratic House members, including Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and several others over age 70 opting for retirement or higher office, have driven trader sentiment toward the 32–35 range as the most probable total. These decisions reflect broader patterns of incumbents passing the torch ahead of the 2026 midterms, with additional factors such as redistricting pressures and opportunities in Senate or gubernatorial races accelerating exits. The current distribution across bins underscores uncertainty over how many more announcements may occur before filing deadlines, as historical midterm cycles show fluctuating retirement rates influenced by party control and individual circumstances. Traders weigh these developments against the possibility of fewer departures if competitive dynamics stabilize.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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