The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, features a proportional party-list system alongside single-mandate districts, with a 5% threshold for list seats. LDPR, now led by Leonid Slutsky following Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s 2022 death, has seen its profile diminish amid regional leadership issues and competition from CPRF and New People for protest and nationalist voters. State pollsters project LDPR support near 9–12%, consistent with its post-2021 trajectory and the broader dominance of United Russia in a tightly managed contest. This underpins the market’s overwhelming consensus for fewer than 45 seats. A material increase would require either a sharp late swing in nationalist sentiment or unusually strong single-mandate results, both viewed as improbable given institutional controls and historical patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<45 95.7%
45–54 3.9%
85–94 1.9%
75–84 1.8%
$26,885 ปริมาณ
$26,885 ปริมาณ
<45
96%
45–54
4%
55–64
1%
65–74
2%
75–84
2%
85–94
2%
95+
2%
<45 95.7%
45–54 3.9%
85–94 1.9%
75–84 1.8%
$26,885 ปริมาณ
$26,885 ปริมาณ
<45
96%
45–54
4%
55–64
1%
65–74
2%
75–84
2%
85–94
2%
95+
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, features a proportional party-list system alongside single-mandate districts, with a 5% threshold for list seats. LDPR, now led by Leonid Slutsky following Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s 2022 death, has seen its profile diminish amid regional leadership issues and competition from CPRF and New People for protest and nationalist voters. State pollsters project LDPR support near 9–12%, consistent with its post-2021 trajectory and the broader dominance of United Russia in a tightly managed contest. This underpins the market’s overwhelming consensus for fewer than 45 seats. A material increase would require either a sharp late swing in nationalist sentiment or unusually strong single-mandate results, both viewed as improbable given institutional controls and historical patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย