**United Russia’s projected party-list vote share sits in the 55-60% band as the dominant market outcome following the September 18-20 State Duma election.** Early official counts from Russia’s Central Election Commission showed the party at approximately 57% with roughly one-quarter of protocols processed, consistent with the 49-53% range from state pollsters VTsIOM, FOM, and APEC ahead of the vote. The tightly managed contest excluded most genuine opposition, including limits on the anti-war Yabloko party, while systemic parties aligned with the Kremlin divided the remainder. Turnout reached 56.66%, and initial results indicate United Russia will secure a constitutional majority of seats. Partial tallies and exit polls have kept the implied probability concentrated on the 55-60% interval, with lower or higher brackets trading at single-digit levels. Final certified figures are expected by September 25.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว55-60% 83%
60%+ 11.4%
50-55% 7%
45-50% <1%
$31,706 ปริมาณ
$31,706 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
<1%
40-45%
<1%
45-50%
1%
50-55%
7%
55-60%
83%
60%+
11%
55-60% 83%
60%+ 11.4%
50-55% 7%
45-50% <1%
$31,706 ปริมาณ
$31,706 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
$146 ปริมาณ
<1%
40-45%
$578 ปริมาณ
<1%
45-50%
$5,284 ปริมาณ
1%
50-55%
$7,750 ปริมาณ
7%
55-60%
$5,011 ปริมาณ
83%
60%+
$13,080 ปริมาณ
11%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**United Russia’s projected party-list vote share sits in the 55-60% band as the dominant market outcome following the September 18-20 State Duma election.** Early official counts from Russia’s Central Election Commission showed the party at approximately 57% with roughly one-quarter of protocols processed, consistent with the 49-53% range from state pollsters VTsIOM, FOM, and APEC ahead of the vote. The tightly managed contest excluded most genuine opposition, including limits on the anti-war Yabloko party, while systemic parties aligned with the Kremlin divided the remainder. Turnout reached 56.66%, and initial results indicate United Russia will secure a constitutional majority of seats. Partial tallies and exit polls have kept the implied probability concentrated on the 55-60% interval, with lower or higher brackets trading at single-digit levels. Final certified figures are expected by September 25.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,706วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**United Russia’s projected party-list vote share sits in the 55-60% band as the dominant market outcome following the September 18-20 State Duma election.** Early official counts from Russia’s Central Election Commission showed the party at approximately 57% with roughly one-quarter of protocols processed, consistent with the 49-53% range from state pollsters VTsIOM, FOM, and APEC ahead of the vote. The tightly managed contest excluded most genuine opposition, including limits on the anti-war Yabloko party, while systemic parties aligned with the Kremlin divided the remainder. Turnout reached 56.66%, and initial results indicate United Russia will secure a constitutional majority of seats. Partial tallies and exit polls have kept the implied probability concentrated on the 55-60% interval, with lower or higher brackets trading at single-digit levels. Final certified figures are expected by September 25.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,706วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**United Russia’s projected party-list vote share sits in the 55-60% band as the dominant market outcome following the September 18-20 State Duma election.** Early official counts from Russia’s Central Election Commission showed the party at approximately 57% with roughly one-quarter of protocols processed, consistent with the 49-53% range from state pollsters VTsIOM, FOM, and APEC ahead of the vote. The tightly managed contest excluded most genuine opposition, including limits on the anti-war Yabloko party, while systemic parties aligned with the Kremlin divided the remainder. Turnout reached 56.66%, and initial results indicate United Russia will secure a constitutional majority of seats. Partial tallies and exit polls have kept the implied probability concentrated on the 55-60% interval, with lower or higher brackets trading at single-digit levels. Final certified figures are expected by September 25.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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