Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–275 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. A deadly attack on a cargo vessel in mid-August and persistent regional tensions tied to the Iran conflict continue to elevate insurance costs, rerouting incentives via the Cape of Good Hope, and dark transits, keeping daily crossings in the low-to-mid 30s. These factors create tight contestation among the 29–32.5% outcome bins, as traders weigh potential stabilization against risks of renewed attacks or coalition responses that could further depress volumes below 200 or support a rebound above 220 in the August 10 week.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 ปริมาณ
$12,247 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
38%
220+
32%
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 ปริมาณ
$12,247 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$6,149 ปริมาณ
31%
180-199
$2,022 ปริมาณ
33%
200-219
$812 ปริมาณ
38%
220+
$3,264 ปริมาณ
32%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–275 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. A deadly attack on a cargo vessel in mid-August and persistent regional tensions tied to the Iran conflict continue to elevate insurance costs, rerouting incentives via the Cape of Good Hope, and dark transits, keeping daily crossings in the low-to-mid 30s. These factors create tight contestation among the 29–32.5% outcome bins, as traders weigh potential stabilization against risks of renewed attacks or coalition responses that could further depress volumes below 200 or support a rebound above 220 in the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,247วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–275 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. A deadly attack on a cargo vessel in mid-August and persistent regional tensions tied to the Iran conflict continue to elevate insurance costs, rerouting incentives via the Cape of Good Hope, and dark transits, keeping daily crossings in the low-to-mid 30s. These factors create tight contestation among the 29–32.5% outcome bins, as traders weigh potential stabilization against risks of renewed attacks or coalition responses that could further depress volumes below 200 or support a rebound above 220 in the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,247วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–275 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. A deadly attack on a cargo vessel in mid-August and persistent regional tensions tied to the Iran conflict continue to elevate insurance costs, rerouting incentives via the Cape of Good Hope, and dark transits, keeping daily crossings in the low-to-mid 30s. These factors create tight contestation among the 29–32.5% outcome bins, as traders weigh potential stabilization against risks of renewed attacks or coalition responses that could further depress volumes below 200 or support a rebound above 220 in the August 10 week.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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