**Ongoing Houthi threats and the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving the closely matched market-implied odds.** Recent attacks, including lethal strikes on vessels in August, have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and prompted carriers to limit exposure, with many ships operating dark or rerouting via the Cape. Weekly volumes stabilized near 200–300 transits in late August—well below pre-crisis norms of 350+—as mainstream tanker traffic bore the brunt while container and certain non-Western operators showed selective resilience. Trader consensus clustering around 170–209 ships for the week of September 7 reflects uncertainty over near-term escalation near Mocha or any de-escalation signals, with upcoming developments in Yemen and carrier scheduling as key swing factors.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
170-189 34%
190-209 30%
210-229 24%
<170 10%
ใหม่
$36,225 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$36,225 ปริมาณ
Sep 13, 2026
<170
10%
170-189
34%
190-209
30%
210-229
24%
230+
9%
170-189 34%
190-209 30%
210-229 24%
<170 10%
ใหม่
$36,225 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$36,225 ปริมาณ
Sep 13, 2026
<170
$13,783 ปริมาณ
10%
170-189
$250 ปริมาณ
34%
190-209
$494 ปริมาณ
30%
210-229
$439 ปริมาณ
24%
230+
$21,259 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving the closely matched market-implied odds.** Recent attacks, including lethal strikes on vessels in August, have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and prompted carriers to limit exposure, with many ships operating dark or rerouting via the Cape. Weekly volumes stabilized near 200–300 transits in late August—well below pre-crisis norms of 350+—as mainstream tanker traffic bore the brunt while container and certain non-Western operators showed selective resilience. Trader consensus clustering around 170–209 ships for the week of September 7 reflects uncertainty over near-term escalation near Mocha or any de-escalation signals, with upcoming developments in Yemen and carrier scheduling as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,225วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving the closely matched market-implied odds.** Recent attacks, including lethal strikes on vessels in August, have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and prompted carriers to limit exposure, with many ships operating dark or rerouting via the Cape. Weekly volumes stabilized near 200–300 transits in late August—well below pre-crisis norms of 350+—as mainstream tanker traffic bore the brunt while container and certain non-Western operators showed selective resilience. Trader consensus clustering around 170–209 ships for the week of September 7 reflects uncertainty over near-term escalation near Mocha or any de-escalation signals, with upcoming developments in Yemen and carrier scheduling as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,225วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving the closely matched market-implied odds.** Recent attacks, including lethal strikes on vessels in August, have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and prompted carriers to limit exposure, with many ships operating dark or rerouting via the Cape. Weekly volumes stabilized near 200–300 transits in late August—well below pre-crisis norms of 350+—as mainstream tanker traffic bore the brunt while container and certain non-Western operators showed selective resilience. Trader consensus clustering around 170–209 ships for the week of September 7 reflects uncertainty over near-term escalation near Mocha or any de-escalation signals, with upcoming developments in Yemen and carrier scheduling as key swing factors.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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