US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with American destroyers, carriers such as the USS George Washington, and helicopters enforcing freedom-of-navigation transits and a selective blockade that has reduced oil flows from roughly 21 million barrels per day pre-crisis to under 11 million recently. This has elevated Brent crude volatility and global energy-price risk premiums. A May 2026 multinational mission involving the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval commitments, while Indian and Pakistani escorts have operated in adjacent waters. Oil-market participants monitor FOMC signals, Treasury yields, and any de-escalation talks that could alter warship deployments before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
$48,639 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
US
26%
Australia
20%
UK
12%
Italy
17%
France
11%
Germany
9%
Greece
11%
Netherlands
5%
$48,639 ปริมาณ
US
$17,811 ปริมาณ
26%
Australia
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
UK
$129 ปริมาณ
12%
Italy
$32 ปริมาณ
17%
France
$14,142 ปริมาณ
11%
Germany
$16 ปริมาณ
9%
Greece
$52 ปริมาณ
11%
Netherlands
$16,457 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with American destroyers, carriers such as the USS George Washington, and helicopters enforcing freedom-of-navigation transits and a selective blockade that has reduced oil flows from roughly 21 million barrels per day pre-crisis to under 11 million recently. This has elevated Brent crude volatility and global energy-price risk premiums. A May 2026 multinational mission involving the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval commitments, while Indian and Pakistani escorts have operated in adjacent waters. Oil-market participants monitor FOMC signals, Treasury yields, and any de-escalation talks that could alter warship deployments before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,639วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with American destroyers, carriers such as the USS George Washington, and helicopters enforcing freedom-of-navigation transits and a selective blockade that has reduced oil flows from roughly 21 million barrels per day pre-crisis to under 11 million recently. This has elevated Brent crude volatility and global energy-price risk premiums. A May 2026 multinational mission involving the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval commitments, while Indian and Pakistani escorts have operated in adjacent waters. Oil-market participants monitor FOMC signals, Treasury yields, and any de-escalation talks that could alter warship deployments before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,639วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with American destroyers, carriers such as the USS George Washington, and helicopters enforcing freedom-of-navigation transits and a selective blockade that has reduced oil flows from roughly 21 million barrels per day pre-crisis to under 11 million recently. This has elevated Brent crude volatility and global energy-price risk premiums. A May 2026 multinational mission involving the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval commitments, while Indian and Pakistani escorts have operated in adjacent waters. Oil-market participants monitor FOMC signals, Treasury yields, and any de-escalation talks that could alter warship deployments before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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