Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98% implied probability on Polymarket as the Idaho Republican Senate primary approaches on May 19, driven by his three-term tenure, strong party establishment backing—including reported support from President Trump—and challengers' limited name recognition and fundraising. Joe Evans, a U.S. Army veteran and political newcomer, trails at 2% alongside minor candidates Denny LaVé and Josh Roy, with no recent polls indicating competitive traction despite absentee ballots now circulating. Historical base rates favor incumbents in safe-state primaries absent scandals, though late-breaking health issues for the 83-year-old Risch, a voting surge for challengers, or unforeseen endorsements could narrow the gap in the final days.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$11,602 ปริมาณ
$11,602 ปริมาณ
Jim Risch
99%
Joe Evans
1%
$11,602 ปริมาณ
$11,602 ปริมาณ
Jim Risch
99%
Joe Evans
1%
If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98% implied probability on Polymarket as the Idaho Republican Senate primary approaches on May 19, driven by his three-term tenure, strong party establishment backing—including reported support from President Trump—and challengers' limited name recognition and fundraising. Joe Evans, a U.S. Army veteran and political newcomer, trails at 2% alongside minor candidates Denny LaVé and Josh Roy, with no recent polls indicating competitive traction despite absentee ballots now circulating. Historical base rates favor incumbents in safe-state primaries absent scandals, though late-breaking health issues for the 83-year-old Risch, a voting surge for challengers, or unforeseen endorsements could narrow the gap in the final days.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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