**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4, 2026, reflects substantial uncertainty around the daily minimum, with the top outcomes (22°C+, 18°C, 17°C, and 16°C) clustered between roughly 27–35% implied probability.** Short-range forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a mild, moist southwesterly flow under a low-pressure influence, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, widespread cloud cover, high humidity (often 80–90%), and periods of rain or showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while mild advection keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Overnight lows are projected in the 13–18°C range depending on the exact timing of clearing, wind gusts (15–25 km/h), and residual cloud cover, which explains the tight clustering of probabilities around 16–18°C. The modest probability on 22°C+ or 12°C and below captures tail risks from forecast divergence: stronger clearing or weaker winds could allow more cooling, while persistent overcast and advection could hold the minimum higher. Historical early-September baselines (typical daily minima near 14–16°C) provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors milder values with meaningful model spread still evident two days out. Updated runs from agencies such as ECMWF or the National Weather Service equivalents will likely drive the next shifts in market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
22°C or higher 69%
18°C 33%
17°C 28%
19°C 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
9%
13°C
20%
14°C
20%
15°C
11%
16°C
27%
17°C
28%
18°C
33%
19°C
27%
20°C
20%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
69%
22°C or higher 69%
18°C 33%
17°C 28%
19°C 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
16°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
18°C
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4, 2026, reflects substantial uncertainty around the daily minimum, with the top outcomes (22°C+, 18°C, 17°C, and 16°C) clustered between roughly 27–35% implied probability.**
Short-range forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a mild, moist southwesterly flow under a low-pressure influence, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, widespread cloud cover, high humidity (often 80–90%), and periods of rain or showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while mild advection keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Overnight lows are projected in the 13–18°C range depending on the exact timing of clearing, wind gusts (15–25 km/h), and residual cloud cover, which explains the tight clustering of probabilities around 16–18°C.
The modest probability on 22°C+ or 12°C and below captures tail risks from forecast divergence: stronger clearing or weaker winds could allow more cooling, while persistent overcast and advection could hold the minimum higher. Historical early-September baselines (typical daily minima near 14–16°C) provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors milder values with meaningful model spread still evident two days out. Updated runs from agencies such as ECMWF or the National Weather Service equivalents will likely drive the next shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4, 2026, reflects substantial uncertainty around the daily minimum, with the top outcomes (22°C+, 18°C, 17°C, and 16°C) clustered between roughly 27–35% implied probability.**
Short-range forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a mild, moist southwesterly flow under a low-pressure influence, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, widespread cloud cover, high humidity (often 80–90%), and periods of rain or showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while mild advection keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Overnight lows are projected in the 13–18°C range depending on the exact timing of clearing, wind gusts (15–25 km/h), and residual cloud cover, which explains the tight clustering of probabilities around 16–18°C.
The modest probability on 22°C+ or 12°C and below captures tail risks from forecast divergence: stronger clearing or weaker winds could allow more cooling, while persistent overcast and advection could hold the minimum higher. Historical early-September baselines (typical daily minima near 14–16°C) provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors milder values with meaningful model spread still evident two days out. Updated runs from agencies such as ECMWF or the National Weather Service equivalents will likely drive the next shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4, 2026, reflects substantial uncertainty around the daily minimum, with the top outcomes (22°C+, 18°C, 17°C, and 16°C) clustered between roughly 27–35% implied probability.** Short-range forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a mild, moist southwesterly flow under a low-pressure influence, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, widespread cloud cover, high humidity (often 80–90%), and periods of rain or showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while mild advection keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Overnight lows are projected in the 13–18°C range depending on the exact timing of clearing, wind gusts (15–25 km/h), and residual cloud cover, which explains the tight clustering of probabilities around 16–18°C. The modest probability on 22°C+ or 12°C and below captures tail risks from forecast divergence: stronger clearing or weaker winds could allow more cooling, while persistent overcast and advection could hold the minimum higher. Historical early-September baselines (typical daily minima near 14–16°C) provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors milder values with meaningful model spread still evident two days out. Updated runs from agencies such as ECMWF or the National Weather Service equivalents will likely drive the next shifts in market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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