Current forecast models for Mexico City point to a nighttime low near the long-term August average of roughly 13°C, with market-implied odds clustered around 14–15°C reflecting uncertainty over exact radiative cooling. At 2,240 m elevation, clear skies enable rapid heat loss after sunset, yet the active rainy season typically brings cloud cover and scattered showers that trap outgoing longwave radiation and limit drops below 12°C. The urban heat island from dense concrete and asphalt further elevates minimum readings at official stations relative to rural surroundings. Wind speed and precipitation timing in the final model runs will determine whether the low settles at 14°C, 15°C, or slightly cooler.