**Trader sentiment centers on 22–23°C as the most probable daily minimum for Tokyo on September 9, 2026, with market-implied odds of 39% and 41% respectively, followed by 21°C at 27%.** This tight clustering reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the precise overnight low amid active weather. Key drivers include a shift from southerly to northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and widespread rain/thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and numerical models (such as GFS) indicate daytime highs near 30–31°C giving way to overnight readings in the 19–22°C range, with several sources converging on 20–22°C as the most likely minimum. Rain and high humidity reduce the diurnal temperature range by suppressing clear-sky cooling while the northeasterly winds advect slightly cooler maritime air. The narrow spread between 22°C and 23°C outcomes stems from small differences in model timing of precipitation and wind shifts; even modest changes in cloud thickness or rainfall duration overnight can alter the low by 1°C. Historical September baselines for Tokyo show typical minima near 21–22°C, providing context, yet current conditions feature above-average moisture and dynamic steering that widen the plausible range. New observational data and updated model runs through the evening will be the primary catalysts for any further market movement before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
21°C 30%
20°C 15%
25°C 6.8%
24°C 4.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
28%
22°C
42%
23°C
41%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
21°C 30%
20°C 15%
25°C 6.8%
24°C 4.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
$68 ปริมาณ
2%
20°C
$648 ปริมาณ
12%
21°C
$1,072 ปริมาณ
28%
22°C
$482 ปริมาณ
42%
23°C
$1,204 ปริมาณ
41%
24°C
$316 ปริมาณ
5%
25°C
$83 ปริมาณ
7%
26°C
$242 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$388 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$101 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C or higher
$181 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on 22–23°C as the most probable daily minimum for Tokyo on September 9, 2026, with market-implied odds of 39% and 41% respectively, followed by 21°C at 27%.** This tight clustering reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the precise overnight low amid active weather.
Key drivers include a shift from southerly to northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and widespread rain/thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and numerical models (such as GFS) indicate daytime highs near 30–31°C giving way to overnight readings in the 19–22°C range, with several sources converging on 20–22°C as the most likely minimum. Rain and high humidity reduce the diurnal temperature range by suppressing clear-sky cooling while the northeasterly winds advect slightly cooler maritime air.
The narrow spread between 22°C and 23°C outcomes stems from small differences in model timing of precipitation and wind shifts; even modest changes in cloud thickness or rainfall duration overnight can alter the low by 1°C. Historical September baselines for Tokyo show typical minima near 21–22°C, providing context, yet current conditions feature above-average moisture and dynamic steering that widen the plausible range. New observational data and updated model runs through the evening will be the primary catalysts for any further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,784วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on 22–23°C as the most probable daily minimum for Tokyo on September 9, 2026, with market-implied odds of 39% and 41% respectively, followed by 21°C at 27%.** This tight clustering reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the precise overnight low amid active weather.
Key drivers include a shift from southerly to northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and widespread rain/thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and numerical models (such as GFS) indicate daytime highs near 30–31°C giving way to overnight readings in the 19–22°C range, with several sources converging on 20–22°C as the most likely minimum. Rain and high humidity reduce the diurnal temperature range by suppressing clear-sky cooling while the northeasterly winds advect slightly cooler maritime air.
The narrow spread between 22°C and 23°C outcomes stems from small differences in model timing of precipitation and wind shifts; even modest changes in cloud thickness or rainfall duration overnight can alter the low by 1°C. Historical September baselines for Tokyo show typical minima near 21–22°C, providing context, yet current conditions feature above-average moisture and dynamic steering that widen the plausible range. New observational data and updated model runs through the evening will be the primary catalysts for any further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,784วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on 22–23°C as the most probable daily minimum for Tokyo on September 9, 2026, with market-implied odds of 39% and 41% respectively, followed by 21°C at 27%.** This tight clustering reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the precise overnight low amid active weather. Key drivers include a shift from southerly to northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and widespread rain/thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and numerical models (such as GFS) indicate daytime highs near 30–31°C giving way to overnight readings in the 19–22°C range, with several sources converging on 20–22°C as the most likely minimum. Rain and high humidity reduce the diurnal temperature range by suppressing clear-sky cooling while the northeasterly winds advect slightly cooler maritime air. The narrow spread between 22°C and 23°C outcomes stems from small differences in model timing of precipitation and wind shifts; even modest changes in cloud thickness or rainfall duration overnight can alter the low by 1°C. Historical September baselines for Tokyo show typical minima near 21–22°C, providing context, yet current conditions feature above-average moisture and dynamic steering that widen the plausible range. New observational data and updated model runs through the evening will be the primary catalysts for any further market movement before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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