Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.5% implied probability for a 20-25% margin of victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election stems from final county canvass results released May 4, 2026, showing her 81,825 votes (60.18%) to Republican Joe Hathaway's 53,520 (39.36%), a 20.82% gap matching election night tallies at 95% reporting. The safely Democratic district, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill after her November 2025 resignation, saw no significant provisional ballots, recounts, or legal challenges emerge in the four weeks since the April 16 vote, solidifying trader consensus. While rare discrepancies in certification or late audits could theoretically shift the outcome, the wide margin and procedural finality leave little room for alteration.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
Mejia 20-25% 99.5%
Mejia <20% 1.0%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,179 ปริมาณ
$26,179 ปริมาณ
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
100%
Mejia <20%
1%
Other
1%
Mejia 20-25% 99.5%
Mejia <20% 1.0%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,179 ปริมาณ
$26,179 ปริมาณ
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
$980 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,582 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,480 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,658 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
$6,742 ปริมาณ
100%
Mejia <20%
$6,872 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$865 ปริมาณ
1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.5% implied probability for a 20-25% margin of victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election stems from final county canvass results released May 4, 2026, showing her 81,825 votes (60.18%) to Republican Joe Hathaway's 53,520 (39.36%), a 20.82% gap matching election night tallies at 95% reporting. The safely Democratic district, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill after her November 2025 resignation, saw no significant provisional ballots, recounts, or legal challenges emerge in the four weeks since the April 16 vote, solidifying trader consensus. While rare discrepancies in certification or late audits could theoretically shift the outcome, the wide margin and procedural finality leave little room for alteration.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,179วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.5% implied probability for a 20-25% margin of victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election stems from final county canvass results released May 4, 2026, showing her 81,825 votes (60.18%) to Republican Joe Hathaway's 53,520 (39.36%), a 20.82% gap matching election night tallies at 95% reporting. The safely Democratic district, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill after her November 2025 resignation, saw no significant provisional ballots, recounts, or legal challenges emerge in the four weeks since the April 16 vote, solidifying trader consensus. While rare discrepancies in certification or late audits could theoretically shift the outcome, the wide margin and procedural finality leave little room for alteration.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,179วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.5% implied probability for a 20-25% margin of victory in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election stems from final county canvass results released May 4, 2026, showing her 81,825 votes (60.18%) to Republican Joe Hathaway's 53,520 (39.36%), a 20.82% gap matching election night tallies at 95% reporting. The safely Democratic district, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill after her November 2025 resignation, saw no significant provisional ballots, recounts, or legal challenges emerge in the four weeks since the April 16 vote, solidifying trader consensus. While rare discrepancies in certification or late audits could theoretically shift the outcome, the wide margin and procedural finality leave little room for alteration.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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