New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$17,171 ปริมาณ
$17,171 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,171 ปริมาณ
$17,171 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,681 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$2,490 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,171วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,171วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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