Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows Marília Arraes (PDT) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) leading the race for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Arraes often edging ahead on first-preference votes while Costa frequently leads or ties in second-choice scenarios. Traders assign Costa the highest probability for second place amid this dynamic, reflecting strategic voting patterns where left-leaning voters back Arraes first and Costa second. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) trail as the main challengers from the right, supported by alliances with Governor Raquel Lyra’s coalition, but remain behind in consolidated estimates. The tight margins and high undecided share in late surveys keep the second-place outcome sensitive to turnout on election day.