Recent cumulative rainfall through mid-May in Hong Kong stands near 88 mm, placing the month on pace for totals below the long-term average of roughly 217–305 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s May–July seasonal outlook favors normal to above-normal precipitation driven by strengthening southwest monsoon flow and typical early-summer convective activity. Ensemble forecasts show moderate uncertainty in the final two weeks, with potential for localized heavy showers that could push totals into the 200–220 mm range or leave them under 180 mm if drier breaks dominate. This balance of observed data and model spread underpins the closely grouped market-implied probabilities across the 180–220 mm outcomes.