Recent polling from the Basque Sociómetro, conducted in late October 2026 ahead of the November 29 general election, shows the PSOE maintaining a narrow lead in Álava vote estimates at 27.9%, ahead of EH Bildu at 23.7%, the PP at 19.7%, and the PNV at 15.1%. This positioning aligns with the 2023 outcome where PSOE secured the seat, while the PNV continues a longer-term decline in the province. Provisional candidate lists published in the BOE on October 28 confirm broad participation across 15 slates, including renewed bids from EH Bildu and PNV figures. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing incorporates these provincial dynamics and the four-seat allocation structure, where small shifts in turnout among nationalist and statewide parties could alter the single-winner result.