Recent polling in Tocantins for the October 4 Senate election shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leading the consolidated two-vote totals, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil), and Eli Borges (Republicanos) remain clustered within a few points for the second seat. Late-September and early-October surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, IPEX, and Real Time Big Data indicate Guimarães holding a modest edge in some second-vote scenarios, yet Gaguim and Borges stay competitive through targeted regional outreach and coalition support. The race stays tight because voters may split their two choices across these contenders, with undecided voters and turnout in key municipalities still capable of shifting the final order on election night.