Stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and repeated setbacks in Russia-Ukraine negotiations have kept the probability of a Trump-Putin-Zelensky trilateral meeting low. Bilateral contacts have occurred—Trump met Zelensky multiple times in 2025 and held summits and calls with Putin—but Russia has insisted on prior lower-level agreements covering territorial issues before any three-way gathering. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 was quickly violated amid renewed drone strikes, underscoring persistent distrust and unresolved core disputes. With no scheduled trilateral venue and both sides conditioning further steps on major concessions, traders view a high-level photo opportunity before 2027 as unlikely under current diplomatic conditions.