Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability for the Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his 36% showing in the March Data for Progress poll of 381 likely voters—nearly double Nate Blouin's 23%—strong fundraising edge nearing $1 million, and broad moderate appeal in the open primary. Salt Lake City School Board member Liban Mohamed's narrow 51%-49% ranked-choice win over McAdams at the April 25-26 state convention boosted her to 17%, signaling progressive delegate enthusiasm despite lower name recognition among primary voters. Blouin maintains 15% on state Senate incumbency and endorsements like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, while others trail amid a crowded field in the newly drawn blue-leaning district. No new polls have emerged since late March.