Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUT-01 House Election Winner
UT-01 House Election Winner
$27,212 ปริมาณ
$27,212 ปริมาณ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
76%
Republican Party
18%
$27,212 ปริมาณ
$27,212 ปริมาณ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,431 ปริมาณ
76%
Republican Party
$25,782 ปริมาณ
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,212วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,212วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย