Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดจะเป็นเท่าใดในตอนท้ายของปี 2026?
อัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดจะเป็นเท่าใดในตอนท้ายของปี 2026?
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,485 ปริมาณ
$6,523,485 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
18%
4.25%
4%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,485 ปริมาณ
$6,523,485 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$216,014 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.25
$134,363 ปริมาณ
1%
1.5%
$134,117 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 ปริมาณ
1%
2.0%
$246,062 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 ปริมาณ
1%
2.75%
$46,024 ปริมาณ
1%
3.0%
$454,736 ปริมาณ
4%
3.25%
$51,537 ปริมาณ
8%
3.5%
$190,202 ปริมาณ
7%
3.75%
$518,453 ปริมาณ
60%
4.0%
$1,358,628 ปริมาณ
18%
4.25%
$413,593 ปริมาณ
4%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,040 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,523,485วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,523,485วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย