Recent polls place the Parti Québécois at 28–30% provincewide support, ahead of a surging Coalition Avenir Québec at 24–27% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 20–23%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec near 15–16%. The PQ maintains an edge among francophone voters and benefits from a fragmented federalist vote, yet seat projections show wide ranges around the 64-seat majority threshold due to tight three-way races and regional patterns favoring CAQ gains in suburbs and the Quebec City area. The early campaign, launched after the August 27 writ drop for the October 5 vote, features high voter fluidity and rising concerns over U.S. trade issues that have boosted CAQ support in recent surveys. These dynamics sustain a narrow balance in implied probabilities for a PQ majority.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว50% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
50% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls place the Parti Québécois at 28–30% provincewide support, ahead of a surging Coalition Avenir Québec at 24–27% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 20–23%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec near 15–16%. The PQ maintains an edge among francophone voters and benefits from a fragmented federalist vote, yet seat projections show wide ranges around the 64-seat majority threshold due to tight three-way races and regional patterns favoring CAQ gains in suburbs and the Quebec City area. The early campaign, launched after the August 27 writ drop for the October 5 vote, features high voter fluidity and rising concerns over U.S. trade issues that have boosted CAQ support in recent surveys. These dynamics sustain a narrow balance in implied probabilities for a PQ majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls place the Parti Québécois at 28–30% provincewide support, ahead of a surging Coalition Avenir Québec at 24–27% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 20–23%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec near 15–16%. The PQ maintains an edge among francophone voters and benefits from a fragmented federalist vote, yet seat projections show wide ranges around the 64-seat majority threshold due to tight three-way races and regional patterns favoring CAQ gains in suburbs and the Quebec City area. The early campaign, launched after the August 27 writ drop for the October 5 vote, features high voter fluidity and rising concerns over U.S. trade issues that have boosted CAQ support in recent surveys. These dynamics sustain a narrow balance in implied probabilities for a PQ majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent polls place the Parti Québécois at 28–30% provincewide support, ahead of a surging Coalition Avenir Québec at 24–27% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 20–23%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec near 15–16%. The PQ maintains an edge among francophone voters and benefits from a fragmented federalist vote, yet seat projections show wide ranges around the 64-seat majority threshold due to tight three-way races and regional patterns favoring CAQ gains in suburbs and the Quebec City area. The early campaign, launched after the August 27 writ drop for the October 5 vote, features high voter fluidity and rising concerns over U.S. trade issues that have boosted CAQ support in recent surveys. These dynamics sustain a narrow balance in implied probabilities for a PQ majority.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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