Constitutional requirements for admitting new states, combined with Venezuela's status as a sovereign independent nation, drive the overwhelming trader consensus against the outcome. Article IV of the U.S. Constitution assigns Congress sole authority over state admissions, typically requiring majorities in both chambers plus presidential approval, while any such change would also demand Venezuelan constitutional reforms, a binding referendum, and bilateral negotiations—none of which have advanced. Recent public remarks by U.S. officials referencing the idea prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan leadership, which emphasized national sovereignty and independence. With the market resolution window closing at the end of 2026, the absence of legislative momentum, territorial claims, or diplomatic signals leaves virtually no viable path. Only unprecedented shifts in U.S.-Venezuela relations or congressional priorities could alter the current assessment.