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icon for Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar
Politika·Brazil

Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar

icon for Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar
Politika·Brazil

Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar

Flávio Bolsonaro 85%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%

Renan Santos 5.6%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,831,591 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 85%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%

Renan Santos 5.6%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,831,591 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$287,981 Vol.

85%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$264,644 Vol.

7%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,115,581 Vol.

6%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$363,525 Vol.

1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$126,390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$712,252 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$144,426 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$312,827 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$109,372 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$70,228 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$207,106 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$138,456 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$681,218 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$162,025 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$79,085 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,504 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,831,591
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,831,591
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kaugnay

icon for Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

56%
icon for Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

66%
Oo
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

13%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 17 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Flávio Bolsonaro" sa 85%, sinusundan ng "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 7%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 85¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay naka-generate ng $4.8 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 11, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar," i-browse ang 17 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay "Flávio Bolsonaro" sa 85%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 7%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.