The crowded Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District, scheduled for August 18, features four leading candidates—Ben Butler, Dan Green, Jorge Martinez, and Thomas Chalifoux—each polling within the margin of error in a recent Victory Insights survey of likely GOP voters, with roughly 41% undecided. Redistricting has turned the seat into a competitive target, drawing a field of veterans, business owners, and local officials who largely align on core conservative priorities such as affordability and border security. Limited name identification and the absence of a dominant frontrunner have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on the impact of last-minute forums, fundraising reports, and undecided-voter movement. A strong debate performance, key local endorsement, or late polling shift could quickly separate the top contenders ahead of primary day.