Recent polls show Marine Le Pen leading first-round intentions at 34-36 percent while Jean-Luc Mélenchon holds second at 17-19 percent, leaving third place fragmented among Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, David Lisnard, and smaller center-right or centrist figures. Philippe and Glucksmann have each slipped one to two points over the past month amid center fragmentation and rising support for Lisnard, who now sits near 9 percent in several surveys. Trader consensus prices reflect this uncertainty, with no candidate exceeding low-30s implied probability for third and the field remaining open to shifts from primary outcomes, candidate withdrawals, or late campaign momentum. Scheduled polling releases and any formal center-right primary decisions in coming months could widen or narrow these gaps before the April 2027 first round.