Recent polling from November 2026 shows Marine Le Pen leading first-round intentions at 34-36 percent, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 17-19 percent, which leaves the battle for third and fourth places fragmented among Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, and smaller contenders. Multiple candidates on the center-right and social-democratic left continue to split moderate support, with Glucksmann maintaining a polling edge near 13 percent while Philippe and Lisnard hover around 12 percent and 6-11 percent respectively. The November 9 announcement by Teddy Riner adds another variable to the crowded field ahead of the April 2027 first round. Trader consensus prices reflect this uncertainty, with no single candidate establishing a clear path to fourth place absent further consolidation or shifts in turnout among centrist and left-leaning voters.