Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since late July have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted more dark or sanctioned transits through Bab el-Mandeb, compressing commercial flows while raw AIS-visible counts hold near recent weekly levels of 200-269. MarineTraffic data for the week ending around August 24 showed 269 crossings (up modestly week-over-week) with 131 laden, though daily snapshots later dipped to the mid-30s amid ongoing strikes and rerouting. Trader consensus clustering in the 180-219 range reflects this stabilized but risk-adjusted volume, with uncertainty around dark movements and potential further escalation ahead of any resolution data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 44%
200-219 35%
220+ 14%
160-179 9%
$17,587 Vol.
$17,587 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
5%
160-179
9%
180-199
44%
200-219
35%
220+
14%
180-199 44%
200-219 35%
220+ 14%
160-179 9%
$17,587 Vol.
$17,587 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$203 Vol.
5%
160-179
$376 Vol.
9%
180-199
$431 Vol.
44%
200-219
$14,217 Vol.
35%
220+
$2,359 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since late July have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted more dark or sanctioned transits through Bab el-Mandeb, compressing commercial flows while raw AIS-visible counts hold near recent weekly levels of 200-269. MarineTraffic data for the week ending around August 24 showed 269 crossings (up modestly week-over-week) with 131 laden, though daily snapshots later dipped to the mid-30s amid ongoing strikes and rerouting. Trader consensus clustering in the 180-219 range reflects this stabilized but risk-adjusted volume, with uncertainty around dark movements and potential further escalation ahead of any resolution data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$17,587Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since late July have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted more dark or sanctioned transits through Bab el-Mandeb, compressing commercial flows while raw AIS-visible counts hold near recent weekly levels of 200-269. MarineTraffic data for the week ending around August 24 showed 269 crossings (up modestly week-over-week) with 131 laden, though daily snapshots later dipped to the mid-30s amid ongoing strikes and rerouting. Trader consensus clustering in the 180-219 range reflects this stabilized but risk-adjusted volume, with uncertainty around dark movements and potential further escalation ahead of any resolution data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$17,587Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since late July have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted more dark or sanctioned transits through Bab el-Mandeb, compressing commercial flows while raw AIS-visible counts hold near recent weekly levels of 200-269. MarineTraffic data for the week ending around August 24 showed 269 crossings (up modestly week-over-week) with 131 laden, though daily snapshots later dipped to the mid-30s amid ongoing strikes and rerouting. Trader consensus clustering in the 180-219 range reflects this stabilized but risk-adjusted volume, with uncertainty around dark movements and potential further escalation ahead of any resolution data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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