SpaceX’s debut of Starship Version 3, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a redesigned launch pad, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights in 2026. After eleven test flights since 2023, the program has averaged under four attempts per year amid repeated regulatory reviews, hardware iterations, and mixed outcomes on booster recovery and upper-stage performance. With Flight 12 now targeted for mid-May from a new pad and no launches yet completed in 2026, rapid cadence growth remains uncertain despite ongoing wet-dress rehearsals and static-fire progress. Traders are also weighing potential delays from FAA approvals and the time needed to validate V3 upgrades before higher flight rates become feasible later in the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateGaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?
Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?
<5 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
51%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 Vol.
51%
5-6
$108,327 Vol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s debut of Starship Version 3, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a redesigned launch pad, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights in 2026. After eleven test flights since 2023, the program has averaged under four attempts per year amid repeated regulatory reviews, hardware iterations, and mixed outcomes on booster recovery and upper-stage performance. With Flight 12 now targeted for mid-May from a new pad and no launches yet completed in 2026, rapid cadence growth remains uncertain despite ongoing wet-dress rehearsals and static-fire progress. Traders are also weighing potential delays from FAA approvals and the time needed to validate V3 upgrades before higher flight rates become feasible later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$450,036Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s debut of Starship Version 3, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a redesigned launch pad, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights in 2026. After eleven test flights since 2023, the program has averaged under four attempts per year amid repeated regulatory reviews, hardware iterations, and mixed outcomes on booster recovery and upper-stage performance. With Flight 12 now targeted for mid-May from a new pad and no launches yet completed in 2026, rapid cadence growth remains uncertain despite ongoing wet-dress rehearsals and static-fire progress. Traders are also weighing potential delays from FAA approvals and the time needed to validate V3 upgrades before higher flight rates become feasible later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s debut of Starship Version 3, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a redesigned launch pad, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights in 2026. After eleven test flights since 2023, the program has averaged under four attempts per year amid repeated regulatory reviews, hardware iterations, and mixed outcomes on booster recovery and upper-stage performance. With Flight 12 now targeted for mid-May from a new pad and no launches yet completed in 2026, rapid cadence growth remains uncertain despite ongoing wet-dress rehearsals and static-fire progress. Traders are also weighing potential delays from FAA approvals and the time needed to validate V3 upgrades before higher flight rates become feasible later in the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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