Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 heavily damaged Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, setting back enrichment and related activities. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran remains roughly a year from producing a testable nuclear device, with no confirmed weaponization work underway. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian program to build or test a nuclear weapon. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at sites such as Taleghan face continued scrutiny and potential further disruption, while Tehran continues to assert its nuclear activities remain peaceful. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is highly improbable.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 heavily damaged Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, setting back enrichment and related activities. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran remains roughly a year from producing a testable nuclear device, with no confirmed weaponization work underway. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian program to build or test a nuclear weapon. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at sites such as Taleghan face continued scrutiny and potential further disruption, while Tehran continues to assert its nuclear activities remain peaceful. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$192,428Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 heavily damaged Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, setting back enrichment and related activities. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran remains roughly a year from producing a testable nuclear device, with no confirmed weaponization work underway. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian program to build or test a nuclear weapon. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at sites such as Taleghan face continued scrutiny and potential further disruption, while Tehran continues to assert its nuclear activities remain peaceful. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,428Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 heavily damaged Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, setting back enrichment and related activities. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran remains roughly a year from producing a testable nuclear device, with no confirmed weaponization work underway. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian program to build or test a nuclear weapon. Ongoing reconstruction efforts at sites such as Taleghan face continued scrutiny and potential further disruption, while Tehran continues to assert its nuclear activities remain peaceful. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is highly improbable.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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