Italy's Chamber of Deputies approved the nuclear framework bill in early June 2026 by a 155-86 margin, advancing it to the Senate with government expectations of final passage before the July summer recess. As of mid-August 2026, however, the Senate has taken no reported action on the measure, leaving insufficient time for committee review, floor debate, and a vote ahead of the August 31 deadline. Parliamentary recesses, competing legislative priorities, and the absence of any fast-track signals have reinforced trader consensus that approval will not occur within the window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unscheduled emergency session or procedural acceleration in the final weeks, though both remain low-probability given the current calendar and lack of momentum.