Lee Jae-myung secured a decisive mandate in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election following Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, with his Democratic Party holding a commanding National Assembly majority. This structural advantage makes impeachment before the end of 2026 highly improbable, as it requires a two-thirds legislative vote that the opposition cannot reach. Constitutional immunity under Article 84 has also suspended prior legal proceedings against him, further stabilizing his position. His five-year term runs through 2030, and recent actions—including a March 2026 state visit to the Philippines and an April supplementary budget address—show continued active governance without signs of legislative or popular pressure for early removal. Traders therefore assign only a 6.7 percent chance he departs office in 2026.